ALIGNMENT WITH HINES PROPOSITION SET → (A1 structure rejects · A5 natural base) - MODELED v1
TURNOUT
LIKELIHOOD
from REAL
vote history
LIKELIHOOD
from REAL
vote history
A1 rejects
A2 restack
A3 contested
A4 reinforce
A5 base
SQUARE GRADES - the letter in each square grades how productive a dollar is there: A = prime (likely voters who back Hines, green) down to F = money pit (will not vote, do not agree, red). Grade = chance they vote × chance they support. The whole campaign is: push voters toward the green corner, then harvest it.
STOCK & FLOW - squares hold voters; threads move them along a route. The valve on each seam is that corridor's VMS - how open the road is, built voter by voter from the interviews. Solid valve = closed on purpose (leave alone - do not wake the other side). Pipe thickness is the threads riding that seam at this week. ○ marks are modeled. Hover a valve for its ledger line; full ledgers on the v3.01 Flow Board.
HOW TO READ THIS BOARD (demo guide)
The board: every voter in MI-10 sits in exactly one square - row = turnout likelihood (T1 rarely votes, top → T5 always votes, bottom - from REAL vote history), column = how well their stack identity fits the Hines proposition set (MODELED, method memo on file). Counts are real voters. Nothing is keyframed - the engine decides, the board reports.
Win zone (shaded squares): A4-A5 columns at T3+ plus A3 at T4-T5 - the harvest region. The pathway to 50%+1 runs through moving mass INTO this zone (persuasion, rightward) and lifting turnout WITHIN it (mobilization/activation).
Square tiles: big number = voters now. Green +/- = mass that moved this week (signal-driven re-scoring). Bottom line = cumulative spend · max passes · active flights (or the game assigned if untouched). Symbol top-right: – untouched · ▷ activated · ✓ performing vs prediction · △ underperforming (Advisor watches these).
Flights: the unit of execution = one cell × one square × one game. The message comes from what the group believes (their stack identity); the ask comes from the game; the price comes from the square. Click any square to see its flights and how each is running vs prediction.
Vote Supply Curve: the engine prices every possible next pass and sorts cheapest-first. Each bar is one flight's next pass; height = marginal $ per vote; color = game family. While a gap remains, a red line marks the bar where cumulative votes cover it (with the gap count labeled); once the win number is covered, a green marker replaces it and remaining bars are surplus. Watch bars reprice as real signal replaces predictions.
The script beats: week 4 - gap crosses zero · week 6 - UNCOVER event (engagement reveals hidden turnout, mass jumps rows) · week 7 - a top flight goes dark, Advisor fires · week 9 - regenerated creative recovers it.
The Narrative Engine: how their story and our story become the ads - full deep dive at narrative-engine.html.
Honesty: REAL = voters, history, cells, every decision on this board. MODELED = alignment + economics priors. SIMULATED = only the electorate's reply (races 1-2 replace it with live return signal).
Win zone (shaded squares): A4-A5 columns at T3+ plus A3 at T4-T5 - the harvest region. The pathway to 50%+1 runs through moving mass INTO this zone (persuasion, rightward) and lifting turnout WITHIN it (mobilization/activation).
Square tiles: big number = voters now. Green +/- = mass that moved this week (signal-driven re-scoring). Bottom line = cumulative spend · max passes · active flights (or the game assigned if untouched). Symbol top-right: – untouched · ▷ activated · ✓ performing vs prediction · △ underperforming (Advisor watches these).
Flights: the unit of execution = one cell × one square × one game. The message comes from what the group believes (their stack identity); the ask comes from the game; the price comes from the square. Click any square to see its flights and how each is running vs prediction.
Vote Supply Curve: the engine prices every possible next pass and sorts cheapest-first. Each bar is one flight's next pass; height = marginal $ per vote; color = game family. While a gap remains, a red line marks the bar where cumulative votes cover it (with the gap count labeled); once the win number is covered, a green marker replaces it and remaining bars are surplus. Watch bars reprice as real signal replaces predictions.
The script beats: week 4 - gap crosses zero · week 6 - UNCOVER event (engagement reveals hidden turnout, mass jumps rows) · week 7 - a top flight goes dark, Advisor fires · week 9 - regenerated creative recovers it.
The Narrative Engine: how their story and our story become the ads - full deep dive at narrative-engine.html.
Honesty: REAL = voters, history, cells, every decision on this board. MODELED = alignment + economics priors. SIMULATED = only the electorate's reply (races 1-2 replace it with live return signal).
Vote Supply Curve live repricing
a true supply curve: x = cumulative votes available, y = marginal $ per vote, sorted cheapest first. The stepped line IS the price of votes; labeled bands beneath show which game family supplies each stretch. Dashed flag = remaining gap. Hover any point, click to open its square
What do the game names mean?
MOB - mobilization: they already agree and already vote - just get them to the polls.
RM - reinforce-mob: they lean our way but need a nudge over the hump.
AM - activation-mob: they agree but rarely vote - wake them up, remind them there is an election.
AR - activation-reinforce: rarely vote AND need convincing - both jobs at once.
XP - cross-pressure: they are torn between competing beliefs - resolve the conflict our way.
RES - reserve: priced but not funded unless the math forces it - usually the other side of the field.
RM - reinforce-mob: they lean our way but need a nudge over the hump.
AM - activation-mob: they agree but rarely vote - wake them up, remind them there is an election.
AR - activation-reinforce: rarely vote AND need convincing - both jobs at once.
XP - cross-pressure: they are torn between competing beliefs - resolve the conflict our way.
RES - reserve: priced but not funded unless the math forces it - usually the other side of the field.
Advisor
The watchdog of the engine: it reads weekly results from every flight and speaks up only for exceptions - a WIN worth doubling down on, a LOSS costing money. Click any card for the numbers behind it.
No signal yet - run the campaign.
Flights (this week)
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Square Drill
Click any square.